The senior living industry is at a critical juncture. After years of navigating pandemic-related upheavals, the sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Employment levels have reached historic highs, wages continue to climb, and demand for senior living services remains robust. Yet, challenges persist—labor shortages, regional workforce disparities, rising costs, and demographic shifts all require strategic, forward-thinking solutions.
Argentum’s 2025 Forecast Report offers a comprehensive look at the trends shaping the industry’s future. With insights spanning workforce recovery, economic realities, and demographic opportunities, this report equips senior living leaders with the tools needed to thrive in a rapidly evolving landscape.
Reaching a Workforce Milestone
For the first time, the senior living workforce is projected to exceed 1 million employees by the end of 2024—a significant achievement highlighting the sector’s determination to rebuild after profound challenges.
The pandemic dealt a heavy blow to staffing levels, with more than 105,000 jobs lost in its early stages. By early 2022, workforce levels hit their lowest point in nearly a decade. However, through persistence and innovation, the industry began to recover.
Assisted living communities led the way, surpassing pre-pandemic employment figures by early 2023. Meanwhile, continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs) have faced a slower recovery, with employment levels still trailing 2019 numbers as of late 2024.
Recovery has also varied regionally. States like Arizona, New Hampshire, and Idaho have experienced robust job growth, while parts of the Midwest and South continue to face workforce deficits.
These gains demonstrate that workforce recovery is achievable, but sustaining progress will demand a continued focus on recruitment and retention strategies.
Tackling Wage Growth and Retention
Wages in senior living have consistently outpaced private-sector growth, rising 33% between 2019 and 2024, compared to 25% in the broader market. This growth underscores the fierce competition for talent and the industry’s commitment to attracting skilled, dedicated employees.
However, wage growth is expected to moderate in 2025, with projected increases of 3.8%, down from 4.8% in 2024. While this slowdown offers some financial relief to operators managing tight margins, the need to offer competitive compensation remains critical to attracting and retaining talent.
Turnover remains a pressing concern. Though overall healthcare turnover rates have declined from their pandemic peak of 45% to 40%, they remain above pre-pandemic norms. Addressing this challenge will require more than higher wages—investment in professional development, career pathways, and a positive workplace culture will be essential.
Economic Realities: Balancing Growth and Costs
The senior living sector is deeply influenced by broader economic trends. While U.S. economic growth is expected to moderate to 2.2% in 2025, the overall trajectory remains positive, marking the fifth consecutive year of expansion.
Key cost factors for senior living operators include:
- Energy: Declining fuel and natural gas prices in 2025 are expected to ease operational costs for heating, cooling, and transportation.
- Food: Rising food costs, particularly for essentials like proteins and produce, will require operators to refine procurement and dining strategies.
Navigating these economic dynamics will demand operational agility and a keen focus on cost management to ensure financial sustainability.
Demographics: A Growing Opportunity
The 85+ population—senior living’s primary market—is expanding rapidly, creating significant growth opportunities for the industry. Additionally, the aging workforce offers another avenue for addressing staffing shortages, with adults 65+ becoming the fastest-growing workforce demographic.
By leveraging the experience and reliability of older workers, senior living operators can diversify their teams and enhance service quality. Embracing these demographic shifts is key to sustaining workforce stability and meeting the evolving needs of residents.
Strategic Priorities for 2025
Argentum’s 2025 Forecast Report emphasizes that resilience alone isn’t enough. Success in the coming year will hinge on proactive strategies, including:
- Workforce Development: Prioritize recruitment, retention, and professional growth initiatives to maintain a strong and stable team.
- Cost Management: Mitigate rising food and wage costs while leveraging opportunities like declining energy prices.
- Demographic Adaptation: Prepare for the increasing demand driven by the 85+ population while tapping into the potential of an aging workforce.
- Economic Agility: Stay prepared to adapt to global and domestic economic changes.
Get the Roadmap to Success
The 2025 Forecast Report is more than an analysis—it’s a strategic guide for navigating the year ahead. Packed with actionable insights on workforce trends, economic factors, and demographic opportunities, this report is a must-have for senior living leaders.
Argentum members can download the full report for free, while non-members can purchase it for $295—a small investment in the future of their organizations.
Visit argentum.org/forecast_report to access the report and chart your course for success in 2025 and beyond.
